News or noise? an analysis of Brazilian GDP announcements

Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos, Patrice Robitaille and Rebeca de la Rocque Palis

No 776, International Finance Discussion Papers from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: Revisions to GDP announcements in many countries are often large, and Faust, Rogers, and Wright (2003) have found that G-7 GDP revisions are predictable to varying degrees. In this paper, we extend FRW to study revisions to Brazilian GDP announcements. We document that revisions to Brazilian GDP are large relative to those of G-7 countries. Brazilian GDP revisions are also predictable, which is consistent with the view that GDP revisions correct errors in preliminary GDP rather than reflect news. However, GDP revisions are far from being entirely predictable. Although GDP revisions are largest only one year following the initial GDP release, those revisions are nearly unpredictable.

Date: 2004
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