Emerging market business cycles with remittance fluctuations

C. Bora Durdu and Serdar Sayan

No 946, International Finance Discussion Papers from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: This paper analyzes the implications of remittance fluctuations for various macroeconomic variables and Sudden Stops. The paper employs a quantitative two-sector model of a small open economy with financial frictions calibrated to Mexican and Turkish economies, two major recipients, whose remittance receipts feature opposite cyclical characteristics. We find that remittances dampen the business cycles in Mexico, whereas they amplify the cycles in Turkey. Their quantitative effects in the long run, approximated by the stochastic steady state are mild. In the short run, however, remittances have quantitatively large impacts on the economy, when the economy is borrowing constrained. This is because agents in the economy cannot adjust their precautionary wealth to sudden tightening in credit, hence, fluctuations in remittances get magnified through an endogenous debt-deflation mechanism. Our findings suggest that procyclical (or countercyclical) remittances can play a significant deepening (or mitigating) role for Sudden Stops.

Keywords: Business; cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-dge, nep-mac, nep-mig and nep-opm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Journal Article: Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgif:946

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