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The Dollar in the U.S. International Transactions (USIT) Model

Joseph Gruber, Andrew McCallum () and Robert Vigfusson ()

No 2016-02-08-2, IFDP Notes from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: The dollar's 20 percent climb against a broad index of foreign currencies since the middle of 2014 has led to an increased focus on how dollar fluctuations affect the U.S. economy. This note provides further detail on the structure and estimation of the trade block of the USIT model. In the context of the model, we present the estimated effect of a 10 percent dollar appreciation on U.S. trade flows and trade prices. We conclude with an assessment of the model's performance since the dollar began its steep appreciation in the summer of 2014.

Date: 2016-02-08
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DOI: 10.17016/2573-2129.16

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