Research Working Paper

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RWP 25-20: Firm-Level Pass-Through of Supply Chain Disruptions: Insights from the U.S. Beef Market

Marco Duarte, Meilin Ma and Francisco Scott

RWP 25-19: What Do LLMs Want?

Thomas Cook, Sophia Kazinnik, Zach Modig and Nathan Palmer

RWP 25-18: Text Sentiment About Monetary Policy

Hie Joo Ahn, Thomas Cook, Taeyoung Doh, Elias Kastritis and Jesse Wedewer

RWP 25-17: A Note on the Finite Sample Bias in Time Series Cross-Validation

Amaze Lusompa

RWP 25-16: Financial Constraints and Employment Dynamics following Natural Disasters

Cooper Howes, Johannes Matschke and Jordan Pandolfo

RWP 25-15: An Analytical Price of Stablecoin “Deposit” Insurance

Stefan Jacewitz

RWP 25-14: The Complementary Effects of Financial Education and Payday Lending Regulations on Financial Inclusion

Aditi Routh and Carly Urban

RWP 25-13: Labor Market Dynamics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, and a Shortfalls Approach to Pursuing Maximum Employment

Brent Bundick, Isabel Cairo and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

RWP 25-12: Regression Model Selection Under General Conditions

Amaze Lusompa

RWP 25-11: Incomplete Information and Irreversible Investment

Jonathan Adams, Cheng Chen, Min Fang, Takahiro Hattori and Eugenio Rojas

RWP 25-10: Unconventional Monetary Policy Spillovers and the (In)convenience of Treasuries

Karlye Dilts Stedman and Andrew Hanson

RWP 25-09: Evaluating Macroeconomic Outcomes Under Asymmetries: Expectations Matter

Brent Bundick, Isabel Cairo and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

RWP 25-08: Revisiting Adam Smith and the Division of Labor: New Evidence from U.S. Occupational Data, 1860–1940

Nicholas A. Carollo, Elior Cohen and Jingyi Huang

RWP 25-07: Worker and Firm Search in the Labor Market: Evidence from Classified Advertisements

Huixin Bi, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, Nora Traum and Greg Woodward

RWP 25-06: What Are Empirical Monetary Policy Shocks? Estimating the Term Structure of Policy News

Jonathan Adams and Philip Barrett

RWP 25-05: Measuring the Spectrum of Occupational Emissions

Nida Cakir Melek and Elior Cohen

RWP 25-04: The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Belief Distortions: Model-Free Evidence

Jonathan Adams and Symeon Taipliadis

RWP 25-03: How High Does High Frequency Need to Be? A Comparison of Daily and Intradaily Monetary Policy Surprises

Phillip An, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Amaze Lusompa

25-02: Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Income Source

Isabel Gödl-Hanisch and Jordan Pandolfo

RWP 25-01: A Better Delineation of U.S. Metropolitan Areas

McKenzie Humann and Jordan Rappaport

RWP 24-16: The Passthrough of Agricultural Commodity Prices to Food Prices

Cortney Cowley, Jacob Dice, Amaze Lusompa, David Rodziewicz and Francisco Scott

RWP 24-15: Maintaining the Anchor: An Evaluation of Inflation Targeting in the Face of COVID-19

Brent Bundick, Andrew Smith and Luca Van der Meer

RWP 24-14: Examining the Financial Accelerator: Bank Responses to the 2014 Oil Price Shock

W. Blake Marsh, David Rodziewicz and Rajdeep Sengupta

RWP 24-13: Asset Purchases in a Monetary Union with Default and Liquidity Risks

Huixin Bi, Andrew Foerster and Nora Traum

RWP 24-12: Risk-on/Risk-off: Measuring Shifts in Investor Sentiment

Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Christian T. Lundblad

RWP 24-11: Creative Destruction and the Reallocation of Capital in Rural and Urban Areas

Jason Brown and Dayton Lambert

RWP 24-10: Mismatch Unemployment During COVID-19 and the Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages

Serdar Birinci, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See

RWP 24-09: Defining Households That Are Underserved in Digital Payment Services

Claire Greene, Fumiko Hayashi, Alicia Lloro, Oz Shy, Joanna Stavins and Ying Lei Toh

RWP 24-08: Should I Stay or Should I Go? Inter-state Mobility and Earnings Gains of Young College Graduates

Andrew Glover and Jose Mustre-del-Rio

RWP 24-07: Does Risk-Taking Increase or Decrease with Higher Interest Rates?

Kaniska Dam and Rajdeep Sengupta

RWP 24-06: Heterogeneity in Household Inflation Expectations: Policy Implications

Taeyoung Doh, Ji Hyung Lee and Woong Yong Park

RWP 24-05: Flood Risk Exposures and Mortgage-Backed Security Asset Performance and Risk Sharing

Jacob Dice, Ethan Hossain and David Rodziewicz

RWP 24-04: Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy

Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See

RWP 24-03: Financial Literacy, Risk Tolerance, and Cryptocurrency Ownership in the United States

Fumiko Hayashi and Aditi Routh

RWP 24-02: Uninsurable Income Risk and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Global Imbalances

Ayşe Kabukçuoğlu Dur, Andrew Glover and Jacek Rothert

RWP 24-01: Explaining the Life Cycle of Bank-Sponsored Money Market Funds: An Application of the Regulatory Dialectic

Stefan Jacewitz, Jonathan Pogach, Haluk Unal and Chengjun Wu

RWP 23-16: Shocks, Frictions, and Policy Regimes: Understanding Inflation after the COVID-19 Pandemic

Taeyoung Doh and Choongryul Yang

RWP 23-15: Technology and Energy Substitution: A Path toward Climate Change Mitigation*

Nida Cakir Melek and Musa Orak

RWP 23-14: How Optimal Was U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound?

Brent Bundick, Logan Hotz and Andrew Smith

RWP 23-13: Financing Modes and Lender Monitoring

Arturo Antón-Sarabia, Kaniska dup Dam and Rajdeep Sengupta

RWP 23-12: Evaluating Local Language Models: An Application to Bank Earnings Calls

Thomas Cook, Sophia Kazinnik, Anne Lundgaard Hansen and Peter McAdam

RWP 23-11: An Experimental Analysis of Quality Misperception in Food Labels

Francisco Scott

RWP 23-10: Economic Benefits and Social Costs of Legalizing Recreational Marijuana

Jason Brown, Elior Cohen and Alison Felix

RWP 23-09: Threshold Endogeneity in Threshold VARs: An Application to Monetary State Dependence

Dimitris Christopoulos, Peter McAdam and Elias Tzavalis

RWP 23-08: Which Types of Unbanked Households Are More (or Less) Likely to Open a Bank Account?

Fumiko Hayashi, Aditi Routh and Ying Lei Toh

RWP 23-07: Understanding Models and Model Bias with Gaussian Processes

Thomas Cook and Nathan Palmer

RWP 23-06: Drought and Cattle: Implications for Ranchers

Cortney Cowley, Jacob Dice and David Rodziewicz

RWP 23-05: R&D Capital and the Idea Production Function

Jakub Growiec, Peter McAdam and Jakub Mućk

RWP 23-04: Janus's Money Demand and Time Inconsistency: A New Impossibility Theorem?

Joao Faria and Peter McAdam

RWP 23-03: Equilibrium Evictions

P. Dean Corbae, Andrew Glover and Michael Nattinger