Working Papers

From Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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2025-005: Taxation, Compliance, and Clandestine Activities

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Sugata Marjit, Santiago Pinto and Marcel Thum

2025-004: Monetary Policy and the Great COVID-19 Price Level Shock

David Andolfatto and Fernando Martin

2025-003: Parents, Patience, and Persistence: A Novel Theory of Intergenerational College Attainment

David Fuller and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

2025-002: A Decomposition of the Phillips Curve’s Flattening

Bill Dupor, Marie Hogan and Jingchao Li

2025-001: Natural Disasters and Real Asset Prices: What Can We Learn From Tornados?

Jeffrey Cohen and Violeta A. Gutkowski

2024-038: Heterogeneity in Work From Home: Evidence from Six U.S. Datasets

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, Aidan Caplan and Tristan Caplan

2024-037: The Beige Book and the Business Cycle: Using Beige Book Anecdotes to Construct Recession Probabilities

Charles Gascon and Joseph Martorana

2024-036: The Interactions of Social Norms about Climate Change: Science, Institutions and Economics

Antonio Cabrales, Manu García, David Ramos Muñoz and Angel Sánchez

2024-035: Heterogeneous Capital Ownership, Partial Democracy and Political Support for Immigration

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Devashish Mitra

2024-034: The economic effects of a potential armed conflict over Taiwan

Christopher Neely

2024-033: The geography of wealth: shocks, mobility, and precautionary savings

Maximiliano Dvorkin and Brian Greaney

2024-032: Battles and Diseases in the U.S. Civil War

Guillaume Vandenbroucke

2024-031: Nominal Maturity Mismatch and the Liquidity Cost of Inflation

Yu-Ting Chiang and Ezra Karger

2024-030: College Access and Intergenerational Mobility

Lutz Hendricks, Tatyana Koreshkova and Oksana Leukhina

2024-029: What the Transcripts Reveal About the FOMC’s Pre-Emptive Easing in July 1995

Kevin Kliesen

2024-028: Cross-border Patenting and the Margins of International Trade

Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso and Ana Maria Santacreu

2024-027: The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and David Deming

2024-026: The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity on Unemployment Insurance Design

Serdar Birinci and Kurt See

2024-025: Mismatch Unemployment During COVID-19 and the Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages

Serdar Birinci, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See

2024-024: Hours Worked and Lifetime Earnings Inequality

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Richard Rogerson

2024-023: Measuring Trends in Work From Home: Evidence from Six U.S. Datasets

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, Aidan Caplan and Tristan Caplan

2024-022: Economic Surveillance using Corporate Text

Tarek A. Hassan, Stephan Hollander, Aakash Kalyani, Markus Schwedeler, Ahmed Tahoun and Laurence van Lent

2024-021: A High-Frequency Measure of Income Inequality

Marie Hogan, Laura Jackson Young and Michael Owyang

2024-020: The Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on U.S. Multinationals’ Intangible Assets

Ana Maria Santacreu and Ashley Stewart

2024-019: Scalable versus Productive Technologies

Mons Chan, Guangbin Hong, Joachim Hubmer, Serdar Ozkan and Sergio Salgado

2024-018: Trade and Inequality in an Overlapping Generations Model with Capital Accumulation

Jun Nie, B Ravikumar and Michael Sposi

2024-017: Dissecting the Great Retirement Boom

Serdar Birinci, Miguel Faria-e-Castro and Kurt See

2024-016: An Empirical Analysis of the Cost of Borrowing

Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Samuel Jordan-Wood and Julian Kozlowski

2024-015: Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Credit Recovery

Violeta A. Gutkowski

2024-014: The St. Louis Fed DSGE Model

Miguel Faria-e-Castro

2024-013: Why Are the Wealthiest So Wealthy? New Longitudinal Empirical Evidence and Implications for Theories of Wealth Inequality

Elin Halvorsen, Joachim Hubmer, Serdar Ozkan and Sergio Salgado

2024-012: Work from Home and Interstate Migration

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, Karel Mertens and Hannah Rubinton

2024-011: A Theoretical Treatment of Foreign Fighters and Terrorism

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Todd Sandler

2024-10: After 40 Years, How Representative Are Labor Market Outcomes in the NLSY79?

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Richard Rogerson

2024-009: The Diffusion of New Technologies

Nicholas Bloom, Marcela Carvalho, Tarek A. Hassan, Aakash Kalyani, Joshua Lerner and Ahmed Tahoun

2024-007: Consumption Dynamics and Welfare Under Non-Gaussian Earnings Risk

Fatih Guvenen, Rocio Madera and Serdar Ozkan

2024-006: Sluggish news reactions: A combinatorial approach for synchronizing stock jumps

Nabil Bouamara, Kris Boudt, Sebastien Laurent and Christopher Neely

2024-005: The Adoption of Non-Rival Inputs and Firm Scope

Xian Jiang and Hannah Rubinton

2024-004: Trade Risk and Food Security

Tasso Adamopoulos and Fernando Leibovici

2024-003: The Effect of COVID Immigration Restrictions on Post-Pandemic Labor Market Tightness

Maggie Isaacson, Cassandra Marks, Lowell Ricketts and Hannah Rubinton

2024-002: Structural Change and the Rise in Markups

Ricardo Marto

2024-001: Heterogeneous Responses to Job Mobility Shocks in a HANK Model with a Frictional Labor Market

Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See

2023-031: Cross-border Patenting, Globalization, and Development

Jesse LaBelle, Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, Ana Maria Santacreu and Yoto Yotov

2023-030: Risk Management in Monetary Policymaking: The 1994-95 Fed Tightening Episode

Kevin Kliesen

2023-029: Bootstrapping out-of-sample predictability tests with real-time data

Silvia Goncalves, Michael McCracken and Yongxu Yao

2023-028: What about Japan?

YiLi Chien, Harold Cole and Hanno Lustig

2023-027: A journal ranking based on central bank citations

Raphael Auer, Giulio Cornelli and Christian Zimmermann

2023-026: On the Transition to Sustained Growth: The Importance of Recent Agricultural Employment

B Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

2023-025: Income Differences and Health Disparities: Roles of Preventive vs. Curative Medicine

Serdar Ozkan

2023-024: Real Wage Growth at the Micro Level

Victoria Gregory and Elisabeth Harding