Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests

Andrew Atkeson, Michael Droste, Michael J. Mina () and James Stock

No 616, Staff Report from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Abstract: We assess the economic value of screening testing programs as a policy response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the fiscal, macroeconomic, and health benefits of rapid SARS-CoV-2 screening testing programs far exceed their costs, with the ratio of economic benefits to costs typically in the range of 2-15 (depending on program details), not counting the monetized value of lives saved. Unless the screening test is highly specific, however, the signal value of the screening test alone is low, leading to concerns about adherence. Confirmatory testing increases the net economic benefits of screening tests by reducing the number of healthy workers in quarantine and by increasing adherence to quarantine measures. The analysis is undertaken using a behavioral SIR model for the United States with 5 age groups, 66 economic sectors, screening and diagnostic testing, and partial adherence to instructions to quarantine or to isolate.

Keywords: Epidemiological models; Macroeconomics; Antigen testing; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E00 I0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35
Date: 2020-11-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Working Paper: Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedmsr:89012

DOI: 10.21034/sr.616

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