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Star Wars at Central Banks

Joel Bank, Hamish Fitchett, Adam Gorajek, Benjamin Malin () and Andrew Staib

No 620, Staff Report from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Abstract: We investigate the credibility of central bank research by searching for traces of researcher bias, which is a tendency to use undisclosed analytical procedures that raise measured levels of statistical significance (stars) in artificial ways. To conduct our search, we compile a new dataset and borrow 2 bias-detection methods from the literature: the p-curve and z-curve. The results are mixed. The p-curve shows no traces of researcher bias but has a high propensity to produce false negatives. The z-curve shows some traces of researcher bias but requires strong assumptions. We examine those assumptions and challenge their merit. At this point, all that is clear is that central banks produce results with patterns different from those in top economic journals, there being less bunching around the 5 per cent threshold of statistical significance.

Keywords: Researcher bias; Central banks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A11 C13 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24
Date: 2021-02-11
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedmsr:89864

DOI: 10.21034/sr.620

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