The Global Credit Cycle in Corporate Bond Returns

Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias
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Leonardo Elias: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/economists/Elias

No 20260519, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: The global corporate nonfinancial bond market is both a large investment asset class and a vital source of funding for nonfinancial firms. With $19 trillion outstanding at the end of 2024, a broad portfolio of corporate bonds would be expected to be well diversified. Yet, in 37 percent of months between 1998 and 2024, more than 80 percent of bonds in the ICE Global Bond Indices—a portfolio with over 10,000 constituents spanning diverse industries, credit ratings, and regions—moved in the same direction, suggesting a large degree of synchronization. In this post, we introduce the global credit factor, which proxies for the global price of risk in international corporate bond markets. The global credit factor creates a global credit cycle in bond risk premia and generates predictable comovement in bond prices.

Keywords: global financial cycle; credit cycles; corporate bond returns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F30 G12 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05-19
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DOI: 10.59576/lse.20260519

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