The Recent Bond Market Selloff in Historical Perspective

Tobias Adrian and Michael Fleming

No 20130805, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: Long-term Treasury yields have risen sharply in recent months. The yield on the most recently issued ten-year note, for example, rose from 1.63 percent on May 2 to 2.74 percent on July 5, reaching its highest level since July 2011. Increasing yields result in realized or mark-to-market losses for fixed-income investors. In this post, we put these losses in historical perspective and investigate whether the yield changes are better explained by expectations of higher short-term rates in the future or by investors demanding greater compensation for holding long-term Treasuries.

Keywords: bond markets; monetary policy; term premiums (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-08-05
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