Forecasts of the Lost Recovery

Michael Cai, Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Abhi Gupta and Pearl Li

No 20180509, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: The years following the Great Recession were challenging for forecasters for a variety of reasons, including an unprecedented policy environment. This post, based on our recently released working paper, documents the real-time forecasting performance of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in the wake of the Great Recession. We show that the model’s predictive accuracy was on par with that of private forecasters and proved to be quite a bit better, at least in terms of GDP growth, than that of the median forecasts from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

Keywords: Great Recession; Real-time Forecasts; DSGE Models; Financial Frictions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 G01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-05-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg, nep-mac and nep-ore
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fednls:87256

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