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Did Changes in Economic Expectations Foreshadow Swings in the 2018 Elections?

Daphne Skandalis, Michael Neubauer, Wilbert Van der Klaauw and Olivier Armantier
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Daphne Skandalis: Research and Statistics Group
Michael Neubauer: Research and Statistics Group
Olivier Armantier: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

No 20190515, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: In the months leading up to the 2018 midterm elections, were economic expectations in congressional districts about to elect a Republican similar to those in districts about to elect a Democrat? How did economic expectations evolve in districts where the party holding the House seat would switch? After examining the persistence of polarization in expectations using voting patterns from the presidential election in our previous post, we explore here how divergence in expectations may have foreshadowed the results of the midterm elections. Using the Survey of Consumer Expectations, we show that economic expectations deteriorated between 2016 and 2018 in districts that switched from Republican to Democratic control compared to districts that remained Republican.

Keywords: Economic Expectations; Midterm Elections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-05-15
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