How Has China’s Economy Performed under the COVID-19 Shock?

Hunter Clark, Jeffrey Dawson and Maxim Pinkovskiy

No 20201023, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: China’s economy was the first to be hit by the COVID-19 outbreak, the first to be locked down, and the first to begin an economic recovery. We examine the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on China’s GDP growth using a set of alternative growth indicators. Our analysis finds that China’s official GDP growth figures over the first three quarters of this year have been broadly in line with alternative indicators and that growth presently is staging a strong rebound and providing a boost to the global economy. However, this rebound faces potential headwinds in the forms of high levels of debt, declining return to capital accumulation, and a shrinking working-age population in China.

Keywords: China; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 F00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-10-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-mac and nep-tra
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