The Evolution of Short-Run r* after the Pandemic

Katie Baker, Logan Casey, Marco Del Negro, Aidan Gleich and Ramya Nallamotu

No 20230810, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: This post discusses the evolution of the short-run natural rate of interest, or short-run r*, over the past year and a half according to the New York Fed DSGE model, and the implications of this evolution for inflation and output projections. We show that, from the model’s perspective, short-run r* has increased notably over the past year, to some extent outpacing the large increase in the policy rate. One implication of these findings is that the drag on the economy from recent monetary policy tightening may have been limited, rationalizing why economic conditions have remained relatively buoyant so far despite the elevated level of interest rates.

Keywords: r*; r-star; post-pandemic; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E4 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-08-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge and nep-mon
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