Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity
Arturo Estrella and
Tobias Adrian ()
No 397, Staff Reports from Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Eleven of fourteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment; three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates almost perfectly between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates, as well as other interest rate spreads, generally do not.
Keywords: Monetary policy; Business cycles; Unemployment; Interest rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Journal Article: Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity (2008)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fednsr:397
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Staff Reports from Federal Reserve Bank of New York Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Amy Farber ().