Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity

Tobias Adrian and Arturo Estrella

No 397, Staff Reports from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: Eleven of fourteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment; three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates almost perfectly between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates, as well as other interest rate spreads, generally do not.

Keywords: Unemployment; Interest rates; Business cycles; Monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Journal Article: Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity (2008)
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