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Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity

Arturo Estrella () and Tobias Adrian ()

No 397, Staff Reports from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: Eleven of fourteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment; three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates almost perfectly between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates, as well as other interest rate spreads, generally do not.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Business cycles; Unemployment; Interest rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2009
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