Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach

Gianluca Benigno, Andrew Foerster, Christopher Otrok and Alessandro Rebucci ()

No 944, Staff Reports from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: We estimate a workhorse dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an occasionally binding borrowing constraint. First, we propose a new specification of the occasionally binding constraint, where the transition between the unconstrained and constrained states is a stochastic function of the leverage level and the constraint multiplier. This specification maps into an endogenous regime-switching model. Second, we develop a general perturbation method for the solution of such a model. Third, we estimate the model with Bayesian methods to fit Mexico’s business cycle and financial crisis history since 1981. The estimated model fits the data well, identifying three crisis episodes of varying duration and intensity: the Debt Crisis in the early 1980s, the Peso Crisis in the mid-1990s, and the Global Financial Crisis in the late 2000s. These crisis episodes display sluggish and long-lasting build-up and recovery phases driven by plausible combinations of shocks.

Keywords: financial crises; business cycles; endogenous regime-switching; Bayesian estimation; occasionally binding constraints; Mexico (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 E3 F41 G01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 68
Date: 2020-10-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-fdg, nep-mac, nep-opm and nep-ore
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises: An endogenous regime‐switching approach (2025)
Working Paper: Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach (2020)
Working Paper: Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach (2020)
Working Paper: Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach (2020)
Working Paper: Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach (2017)
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