EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations

Julian di Giovanni, Andrei Levchenko and Isabelle Mejean ()

No 947, Staff Reports from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: This paper uses a data set covering the universe of French firm-level sales, imports, and exports over the period 1993-2007 and a quantitative multi-country model to study the international transmission of business cycle shocks at both the micro and the macro levels. The largest firms are both important enough to generate aggregate fluctuations (Gabaix 2011), and most likely to be internationally connected. This implies that foreign shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy primarily through the largest firms. We first document a novel stylized fact: larger French firms are significantly more sensitive to foreign GDP growth. We then implement a quantitative framework calibrated to the full extent of observed heterogeneity in firm size, exporting, and importing. We simulate the propagation of foreign shocks to the French economy and report one micro and one macro finding. At the micro level, heterogeneity across firms predominates: 40-85 percent of the impact of foreign fluctuations on French GDP is accounted for by the “foreign granular residual”—the term capturing the fact that larger firms are more affected by the foreign shocks. At the macro level, firm heterogeneity dampens the impact of foreign shocks, with the GDP responses 10-20 percent larger in a representative firm model compared to the baseline model.

Keywords: granularity; shock transmission; aggregate fluctuations; input linkages; international trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F15 F23 F44 F62 L14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52
Date: 2020-11-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-mac and nep-opm
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr947.pdf Full text (application/pdf)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr947.html Summary (text/html)

Related works:
Working Paper: Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Foreign shocks as granular fluctuations (2020) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fednsr:89060

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Staff Reports from Federal Reserve Bank of New York Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().

 
Page updated 2022-05-22
Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:89060