Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States

Riccardo Colacito (), Bridget Hoffman and Toan Phan

No 18-9, Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Abstract: We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross-section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a 1 degree F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state-level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one-third over the next century.

Keywords: economic growth; temperature; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O44 Q51 Q59 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2018-04-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env and nep-gro
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States (2019)
Working Paper: Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States (2016)
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