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Searching for Hysteresis

Luca Benati () and Thomas A. Lubik

No 21-03, Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Abstract: We search for the presence of hysteresis, which we dene as aggregate demand shocks that have a permanent impact on real GDP, in the U.S., the Euro Area, and the U.K. Working with cointegrated structural VARs, we nd essentially no evidence of such effects. Within a Classical statistical framework, it is virtually impossible to detect such shocks. Within a Bayesian context, the presence of these shocks can be mechanically imposed upon the data. However, unless a researcher is willing to impose the restriction that the sign of their long-run impact on GDP is the same for all draws, which amounts to imposing the very existence of hysteresis e⁄ects, the credible set of the permanent impact uniformly contains zero. We detect some weak evidence only for the U.K., originating from an increase in labor force participation and a fall in the unemployment rate.

Keywords: Bayesian methods; Transitory Shocks; GDP Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36
Date: 2021-02-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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DOI: 10.21144/wp21-03

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