On the Economy

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101910: Banking Analytics: Modifications to Commercial Real Estate Loans Rise

Raelene Angle-Graves and Julianne Baer

101909: Understanding the “Swoosh”-Shaped Yield Curve for Treasuries

Julian Kozlowski and Nicholas Sullivan

101851: How Common Are Monthly Payroll Job Losses during Business Expansions?

Kevin Kliesen

101824: What Causes “Jumps” in Stock Prices?

Nabil Bouamara, Kris Boudt, Anna Cole, Sebastien Laurent and Christopher Neely

101823: How Well Are Inflation Expectations Anchored? Two Datasets Compared

Anna Cole and Michael McCracken

101767: Small Business Lending Trends and Banking Deserts, 2019-23

Mike Eggleston

101754: Aggregate Implications of the Rise in Firms’ Custom Software Investments

Xian Jiang and Hannah Rubinton

101565: Where Developing Nations Prone to Transnational Terrorism Stand in Foreign Aid and FDI

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Hoang Le

101533: Lower Immigration Projections Mean Lower Breakeven Employment Growth Estimates

Alexander Bick

101478: Is AI Contributing to Rising Unemployment? Evidence from Occupational Variation

Serdar Ozkan and Nicholas Sullivan

101475: Recent College Grads Bear Brunt of Labor Market Shifts

Serdar Ozkan and Nicholas Sullivan

101467: How Changes in Trade Partners Have Affected U.S. Import Prices

Dawn Chinagorom-Abiakalam and Fernando Leibovici

101466: How Have U.S. Workers Fared in a Labor Market Reshaped by the Pandemic?

Alice Kassens and William M. Rodgers

101465: China’s Role in Global Innovation Is Changing

François de Soyres, Ethan Hunt and Ana Maria Santacreu

101464: The Sluggish Renaissance of U.S. Manufacturing

Hoang Le and Ricardo Marto

101398: Why U.S. House Prices Stayed Resilient While Prices Fell in Other Countries

Serdar Ozkan

101397: Home Values after a Tornado: What Can St. Louis Learn from Little Rock’s 2023 Experience?

Jeffrey Cohen, Jack Fuller and Violeta A. Gutkowski

101373: The Use of AI in the Health Care Workplace: The Experience in Eighth District States

Nicole Summers-Gabr

101337: Firms’ Wage-Setting Power: A New Take on Monopsony in the Labor Market

Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria

101284: The Use of AI in the Health Care Workplace: The U.S. Experience

Nicole Summers-Gabr

101255: U.S. Retirement Normalization following the COVID-19 Pandemic

Serdar Birinci, Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Gus Gerlach and Kurt See

101254: Do Workforce Barriers Differ among Eighth District States?

Ana Hernández Kent

101187: Family Care, Health Issues Remain Top Workforce Barriers

Ana Hernández Kent

101186: Banking Analytics: The Growing Connection between Bank and Nonbank Sectors

Amalia Estenssoro and Reed Romanko

101173: Economic Sentiment and the Role of the Labor Market

William M. Rodgers

101153: Financial Market Volatility in the Spring of 2025

Christopher Neely

101152: Exploring Trends in Community Development Consumer Lending

Mike Eggleston

100101: Banking Analytics: Net Interest Margins Rise at U.S. Banks

Suzanne Jenkins and Richard Zott

100100: Economic Sentiment and Indicators of Household Financial Wellness

William M. Rodgers

100067: Unemployment Insurance Eligibility and Benefits: An Analysis of Rules across U.S. States and Time

Serdar Birinci, Gus Gerlach and Kurt See

100044: Who Trades More with China than with the U.S.?

Dawn Chinagorom-Abiakalam and B Ravikumar

100021: Making Sense of Recession Probabilities

Brooke Hathhorn and Michael Owyang

100000: What Have We Learned from the U.S. Tariff Increases of 2018-19?

Maximiliano Dvorkin and Cassandra Marks

99983: Banking Analytics: Understanding the Composition of Bank Loan Portfolios

Amalia Estenssoro and Reed Romanko

99982: Understanding the Net International Investment Position

Ana Maria Santacreu

99968: Industry-Level Growth, AI Use and the U.S. Postpandemic Recovery

Mickenzie Bass and Oksana Leukhina

99967: Banking Analytics: Commercial Real Estate Loan Growth Slows to 11-Year Low

Julianne Baer and Eldar Beiseitov

99966: The Broad, Continuing Rise in Delinquent U.S. Credit Card Debt Revisited

Masataka Mori and Juan Sanchez

99965: The Economics of Child Care: A State-Level Analysis

Charles Gascon and Ana Hernández Kent

99936: Top 25 Developing Nations with Terrorism Incidents

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Hoang Le

99922: Supply, Demand and the Post-Lockdown Inflation Surge

Bill Dupor and Marie Hogan

99882: What’s Driving the Surge in U.S. Corporate Profits?

Ricardo Marto

99881: A Historical and Geographical Look at Federal Employment Levels

Anna Cole and Michael McCracken

99839: Breakeven Employment Growth: A Simple but Useful Benchmark

Alexander Bick and Victoria Gregory

99814: Nontariff Trade Barriers in the U.S. and EU

Dawn Chinagorom-Abiakalam and Fernando Leibovici

99790: Uncertainty Shocks Can Trigger Recessionary Conditions

Kevin Kliesen

99789: From Partner to Rival: Understanding China’s Technological Rise through Patent Data

François de Soyres, Ece Fisgin and Ana Maria Santacreu

99788: What’s behind Japan’s High Government Debt?

YiLi Chien and Ashley Stewart

99749: U.S. and Eighth District Banks Face Challenges but End 2024 on Solid Footing

Carl White

99729: Are Continued Jobless Claims a Useful Gauge of Labor Market Conditions?

Anna Cole and Michael McCracken