Forecasting Beyond Today’s Data

Tom Barkin

Speech from Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Abstract: While the data has been good, it’s fair to say the mood has not. The issue has been uncertainty. Since late March, I’ve been saying, “Driving is really hard when it’s foggy,” and that’s still what I am hearing from business leaders. They’re on pause, choosing to “wait and see.” They’re not cutting back, but they’re also not hiring nor leaning into new investments. The fog hasn’t lifted. My weather forecast isn’t calm and sunny, but it’s not particularly stormy either. There are risks on the employment side and risks on the inflation side. At our last meeting, the FOMC held the federal funds rate steady. The fog is dense for us too, and there is little upside in heading too quickly in any one direction.

Keywords: business cycles; economic growth; inflation; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-06-26
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