Why the Consumer Matters

Tom Barkin

Speech from Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Abstract: Over the last several months, I’ve been saying “It’s really hard to drive when it’s foggy.” In the context of high uncertainty about the implications of government policy changes, businesses have been on pause. But the fog is lifting. Recently, in the context of high uncertainty, we have seen consumer spending soften. But I take comfort in the underlying dynamics. Unemployment is low. Real wages are up. Asset values are high. It’s hard to envision a sustained consumer pullback in such an environment. So, what does a solid, but stretched consumer mean, in the context of the road ahead? I anticipate the ride will be bumpy, but bearable.

Keywords: Business cycles; economic growth; inflation; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-08-12
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