GARCH-based Volatility Forecasts for Market Volatility Indices

Massimiliano Cecconi (), Giampiero Gallo () and Marco Lombardi

Econometrics Working Papers Archive from Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti"

Abstract: Volatility forecasting is one of the main issues in the financial econometrics literature. Volatility measures may be derived from statistical models for conditional variance, or from option prices. In recent times, indices have been suggested which summarize the implied volatility of widely traded market index options. One such index is the so-called VXN, an average of 30-day ahead implied volatilities of the options written on the NASDAQ-100 Index. In this paper we show how forecasts obtained with traditional GARCH-type models can be used to forecast the volatility index VXN.

Keywords: Volatility modelling; Volatility forecasting; GARCH models; VXN; Implied volatility. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18 pages
Date: 2002-02-27
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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