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Demographic Trends in Developing Countries: Convergence or Divergence Processes?

Maria Silvana Salvini (), Giuseppe Gabrielli (), Anna Paterno () and Isabella Corazziari ()
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Maria Silvana Salvini: Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze, https://www.disia.unifi.it
Giuseppe Gabrielli: Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II
Anna Paterno: Università degli Studi di Bari
Isabella Corazziari: ISTAT, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, Roma

No 2015_03, Econometrics Working Papers Archive from Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti"

Abstract: Recent years are characterized by both a rise in life expectancy and a further fall in fertility in the developing countries (DCs). These processes coexist with large heterogeneity according to the specific living conditions of countries. The aim of our research is to analyze the trends of specific demographic parameters regarding mortality and fertility, jointly with some socio-economic characteristics of more than 100 DCs, to assess if convergence patterns in demographic behaviors prevail or if marked differences persist. As the paths of mortality and fertility in fact differ deeply over space and time, we need a specific statistical multi-way analysis technique that consider the time series dimension. Thus, we apply Dynamic Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis of trajectories in order to evaluate at macro-level the main demographic trends of DCs in the 1995-2010 period. Results let us reconsider the processes of convergence and enlighten the heterogeneity among clusters.

Keywords: Mortality; Fertility; Developing Countries; Dynamic Factor Analysis; Cluster Analysis; Convergence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I15 I24 J13 O10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2015-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem
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