Narratives of the future shape fertility in uncertain times. Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

Raffaele Guetto (), Giacomo Bazzani () and Daniele Vignoli ()
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Giacomo Bazzani: Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze, https://www.disia.unifi.it
Daniele Vignoli: Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze, https://www.disia.unifi.it

No 2020_11, Econometrics Working Papers Archive from Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti"

Abstract: The sociological and demographic literatures have widely demonstrated that fertility decisions are shaped by individuals' previous life experiences and socioeconomic status – the "shadow of the past". However, rising uncertainty in contemporary societies necessitates an analytical framework that acknowledges the influence of the future in the fertility decision-making process. Based on the Narrative Framework, we argue that personal narratives of the future, and their constitutive elements of expectations and imaginaries – the "shadow of the future" – represent crucial drivers of fertility intentions under conditions of uncertainty. Our arguments are tested empirically by exploiting the exogenous uncertainty shock provided by the COVID-19 pandemic, and unique data we collected during the Italian lockdown. Results suggest that, because of COVID-induced uncertainty, subjective perceptions and personal narratives of the future – also shaped by media shared narratives – gain the upper hand over the shadow of the past in influencing fertility intentions. In addition, we provide evidence of a causal impact of shared narratives of the future on fertility intentions through an online experiment simulating a "real" exposition of the respondents to a new media narrative on the expected length of the emergency.

Keywords: Uncertainty; COVID-19; Coronavirus; Narratives; Fertility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A13 A14 J11 J13 Z13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 55 pages
Date: 2020-12
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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