The Future of Births via Medically Assisted Reproduction in Italy: Scenarios to 2050

Alessandra Burgio (), Cinzia Castagnaro (), Gustavo De Santis (), Vignoli Daniele () and Vitali Agnese ()
Additional contact information
Alessandra Burgio: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, https://www.istat.it/
Cinzia Castagnaro: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, https://www.istat.it/
Gustavo De Santis: Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Universita' di Firenze, https://www.disia.unifi.it
Vignoli Daniele: Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Universita' di Firenze, https://www.danielevignoli.com
Vitali Agnese: Universita' di Trento

No 2025_11, Econometrics Working Papers Archive from Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti"

Abstract: Delayed childbearing is increasingly common in Italy, contributing to rising demand for medically assisted reproduction (MAR). This paper presents nine possible future scenarios of the share of MAR births in total births, based on the latest (2023) official data and three hypotheses on the evolution of maternal mean age at childbirth (no change, slow ageing, rapid ageing) combined with three hypotheses on the MAR share in the fertility schedule (no change, moderate increase, rapid increase). Our projections indicate that changes in the age structure of women of reproductive age have a negligible effect on future MAR prevalence. In contrast, delayed childbearing and continued expansion of MAR use could raise the share of MAR births from 4.3% in 2023 to 11–12% by mid-century, with a plausible upper bound exceeding 15% under sustained trends. These results underscore the growing demographic and social significance of MAR in Italy and highlight important implications for public health planning, resource allocation, and policies aimed at supporting earlier childbearing.

Keywords: Medically assisted reproduction; MAR births; delayed childbearing; fertility projections; Italy; demographic scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16 pages
Date: 2025-10
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