Trade Shock and Labor Earnings: Difference-in-Differences Evidence from Local Labor Markets

Oleg Gurshev

No 118, GRAPE Working Papers from GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of an export demand shock triggered by the 2014 Russian import ban on labor earnings in Poland. We implement an event-study using traditional and doubly-robust difference-in-differences estimators, supplemented by a variance decomposition. Our findings indicate that the shock has caused substantial consequences for regional inequality. Specifically, we document a persistent decline in average relative earnings between the exposed group of counties and the rest of the country. The analysis of between-group variance shows that the import ban has reduced the earnings premium, shifting the exposed counties from relatively higher-earnings positions toward the national average.

Keywords: Poland; Russian import ban; economic sanctions; regional inequality; local labor markets; difference-in-differences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F16 F51 J31 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2026
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-uep
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fme:wpaper:118

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