A Comprehensive Test of Order Choice Theory:Recent Evidence from the NYSE

Andrew Ellul

FMG Discussion Papers from Financial Markets Group

Abstract: We perform a comprehensive test of order choice theory from a sample period when the NYSE trades in decimals and allows automatic executions. We analyze the decision to submit or cancel an order or to take no action. For submitted orders we distinguish order type (market vs. limit), order side (buy vs sell), execution method (floor vs. automatic), and order pricing aggressiveness. We use a multinomial logit specification and a new statistical test. We find a negative autocorrelation in changes in order flow exists over five-minute intervals supporting dynamic limit order book theory, despite a positive first-order autocorrelation in order type. Orders routed to the NYSE’s floor are sensitive to market conditions (e.g., spread, depth, volume, volatility, market and individual-stock returns, and private information), but those using the automatic execution system (Direct+) are insensitive to market conditions. When the quoted depth is large, traders are more likely to ¶jump the queue¶ by submitting limit orders with limit prices bettering existing quotes. Aggressively-priced limit orders are more likely late in the trading day providing evidence in support of prior experimental results.

Date: 2003-11
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