Risk, Uncertainty and Financial Stability

Charles Goodhart ()

FMG Special Papers from Financial Markets Group

Abstract: My first-ever essay into quasi-independent research involved an attempt to understand, explain and even possibly extend G.L.S. Shackle’s model of decision-making under uncertainty. Undergraduates at Cambridge who had done well in Part 1 of the Economics Tripos were encouraged to participate in a joint student/Faculty seminar, called – as I recall – the Monday Club, and each Monday evening of term one of the undergraduates, chosen by drawing lots, was expected to present a paper. Anyhow when I drew my turn, I constructed a three dimensional graph, out of green plasticine, of Shackle’s focus gain and focus loss, potential surprise, and all that. I recollect that the marks for technical merit were higher than those for artistic ability. The approximate date of that presentation was November 1958.

Date: 2008-04
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