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Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production: spatial representation of Markov chains

Mikkel Bojesen (), Hans Skov-Petersen () and Morten Gylling ()
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Mikkel Bojesen: Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen
Hans Skov-Petersen: Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen
Morten Gylling: Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen

No 2013/16, IFRO Working Paper from University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics

Abstract: This paper forecasts the spatial distribution of Danish husbandry production from 2009 until 2025. The study builds on a time series data set (1999 – 2009) for the number of livestock units (including piglets, finishers, sows, dairy cattle and young stock) measured by 1km2 grid cells for the whole of Denmark. A Markov Chain Model (MCM) was applied to estimate transition probabilities for the future livestock intensity composition, divided into state classes. Neighbouring effects between grid cells were not included. The modelled transition probabilities fit the data very well in all state classes, except for those farms which are in the largest state class. Regional differences in development trends were documented. The strategic objective of the model is to provide data for the spatial assessment of the potential of biogas production which can form the basis for a location analysis for future biogas plants.

Keywords: structural changes; Markov Chain Models; biogas; agriculture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q16 Q21 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2013-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
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