Working Paper 12-17 - Évaluation de la précision des prévisions à court terme du BFP - Une mise à jour

Working Paper 12-17 - Evaluatie van de nauwkeurigheid van de kortetermijnvooruitzichten van het FPB - Een update

Ludovic Dobbelaere and Igor Lebrun

Working Papers from Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium

Abstract: The Federal Planning Bureau is responsible, within the National Accounts Institute, for producing the macroeconomic forecasts that are used to set up the federal government budget. This working paper presents an update of the ex post assessment of the quality of these forecasts. Compared to the previous working paper devoted to this topic, the sample has been extended by six additional years and the number of evaluated variables has been increased, in particular with series at current prices. Moreover, this paper also examines to what extent the observed forecast errors are due to errors made on exogenous assumptions related to the international environment.

Keywords: Forecast; post mortem assessment; Economic budget (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-09-29
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