Synopsis: Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda

Emerta A. Aragie, James Thurlow, James Warner and Josue Niyonsingiza

No 26, Policy briefs from International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Abstract: This research extends IFPRI’s RIAPA modeling to include both the full implementation of PSTA 5’s climate smart agriculture and a once-in-five-year weather shock, and the interactions of both on agricultural sectors, agricultural GDP, and on national GDP. Main findings include: Rwanda’s agri-food system is highly vulnerable to climate variability due to its structural characteristics. Results indicate that CSA practices during the PSTA-5 period (2024/25–2028/29) increase agricultural GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points annually, with the largest impacts on horticulture and roots and tubers. However, several CSA interventions relate to infrastructural improvements and therefore the benefits extend over a longer time horizon, ultimately having even greater impact beyond PSTA 5. The weather shock causes dramatic declines in agricultural GDP (-1.6 percent), with horticulture affected most negatively, suffering a 2.4 percent decline. The joint Climate + CSA scenario depicts how CSA helps mitigate, but not fully eliminate, the negative impacts of weather shocks during the PSTA 5 period.

Keywords: climate-smart agriculture; modelling; food systems; agricultural policies; Rwanda; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01-14
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fpr:polbrf:179844

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