Improving effective use of seasonal forecasts in South Africa

Katharine Vincent, Tracy Cull, Emma Archer van Garderen, Declan Conway, Carole Dalin, Delphine Deryng, Steve Dorling, Amy Fallon and Willem Landman

No 1, Project notes from International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Abstract: The study showed that El Niño no longer strikes the same fear as it used to, even in the agricultural sector where the negative impacts of the 1997-98 and 1982-83 events are within living memory. The widespread drought associated with the El Niño event of 2015/16 (subsequent to this study) may, however, reverse this trend and promote greater interest in the role of ENSOs in seasonal forecasts. There is little demand for El Niño-specific forecasts outside of agricultural research. However there is evidence for the use of seasonal forecasts in the agriculture, water and disaster preparedness and response sectors in South Africa.

Keywords: forecasting; periodicity; seasonality; rainfall patterns; weather; drought; shock; resilience; el niño; South Africa; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Southern Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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