Assessing the projected impacts of alternative PSTA5 spending trajectories on the Rwandan economy

Emerta A. Aragie, Chantal Ingabire, Mads Knudsen, James Thurlow and James Warner

No 18, Rwanda SSP policy notes from International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Abstract: Data-driven and evidence-based approaches are critical for shaping public policy, investment, and expenditure decisions, ensuring that development plans are effective and well-informed. The RIAPA model, utilized in this study, has played a key role in informing policy discussions, including the identification of national priorities and strategies, the mid-term assessment of the Rwanda’s fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 4), and the post-COVID-19 recovery and relief efforts. This policy note employs a Rwanda-specific RIAPA model integrated with an investment module to analyze the expected benefits from agricultural investments outlined in the Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5) for 2025-2029. Results show that, compared to PSTA 4 spending trends, a moderate spending scenario under PSTA 5 could accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusive growth by 2.8 percentage points. A higher budget scenario, re quiring an average annual expenditure of $610 million, is projected to reach an ambitious eight percent agricultural growth target. Faster agricultural growth would further stimulate the off-farm components of the agri-food system, reinforcing agriculture's role as an economic growth engine. By 2029, PSTA 5 could reduce poverty and undernourishment by 1.6 million people, contingent on managing potentially significant climatic and external economic risks.

Keywords: modelling; policies; agriculture; agrifood systems; public expenditure; Rwanda; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-02
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fpr:rssppn:173824

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