Impact of armed conflict on crop production in greater Khartoum, Sudan

Anwar Sidahmed and Shima Mohamed

No 23, Sudan SSP working papers from International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Abstract: Since April 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a violent conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, resulting in widespread displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and the collapse of essential services. As with agricultural production in rural communities across Sudan, urban and peri-urban farming systems in Greater Khartoum, the area around the capital city, have also been harmed by the conflict. An integrated assessment of the impact of conflict on crop production in Greater Khartoum was conducted using recent satellite imagery from 2024/25 winter season (October 2024 to March 2025), along with household-level data from the 2024 IFPRI Smallholder Farmers Survey covering the 2023/24 winter season (October 2023 to March 2024). Key findings from the assessment include: Decline in cropping activities: Analysis of satellite imagery showed clear evidence of a decline in cropping activities between December 2022 and December 2024. Land use analysis showed a 22 percent reduction in total cultivated area over this period. Notably, land under center-pivot irrigation declined by 87 percent. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis showed a 36 percent decline in vegetated land, indicating both reduced cultivation and plant cover. Widespread disruption to farming: Thirty-six percent of the farmers surveyed in Khartoum state reported not cultivating any crops in the 2023/24 winter season primarily because of conflict-related challenges that they could not overcome. Of those that did farm, over three-quarters reported that the conflict had disrupted their agricultural activities. Shifts in crop selection and agricultural input use: Vegetables and fruits are now the most commonly grown crops, followed by fodder and beans. Less than one-quarter of farmers now use improved seeds, largely due to conflict-related input shortages. However, despite the conflict, access to fertilizer markets has been maintained— 87 percent of farmers reported that they continue to use fertilizer. Localized resilience: Some areas of Greater Khartoum, particularly Karari locality, have maintained relatively high levels of cultivation, reflecting localized resilience and reasonable safety and access to agricultural landholdings. By combining spatial and socioeconomic data, the study highlights the complex and multidimensional nature of agricultural disruption in conflict-affected areas, like Greater Khartoum. Several policy responses and other actions needed for recovery and to strengthen the resilience of affected farmers are suggested by the study findings: Promote resilient and inclusive farming systems and agricultural value chains. Restore agricultural infrastructure and input supply chains. Improve farmer mobility and market access. Provide emergency assistance and recovery packages to farmers. Strengthen agricultural monitoring systems.

Keywords: armed conflicts; capacity development; crop production; farming; satellite imagery; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-10-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:176773

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