Identifying the transmission channels of COVID-19 impact on poverty and food security in refugee-hosting districts of Uganda

Margherita Squarcina and Donato Romano

Working Papers - Economics from Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic and the related restrictions implemented by the Ugandan government placed severe limitations on labor mobility, inputs availability, and market access. This negatively impacted poverty and food insecurity, especially in refugee-hosting districts, which were already suffering a fragile situation. While worsening levels of food security and dietary quality in the country have been documented by several authors, it is still unclear how the COVID-19 impact was transmitted to the final outcomes. This paper aims to identify the mechanisms through which COVID-19 affected poverty and food insecurity in refugee-hosting districts in Uganda. Starting from the two main transmission channels– i.e., food value chain disruption and job loss – we use path analysis with household fixed effects to identify the main pathways for different groups of households according to refugee status (i.e. refugee vs. host households), main income source (agricultural vs. non-agricultural households) and agricultural household’s market position (i.e. net-buyers vs. net-sellers vs. self-sufficient households). The role of responses that can offset the COVID-19 shock, such as assistance received or access to credit, and exogenous factors, such as environmental shocks or distance to market, have also been accounted for. The analysis shows that COVID-19 significantly affected labor participation and increased food value chain disruption, particularly worsening diet quality. Refugees have been affected more than hosts by the COVID-19 direct and indirect effects resulting in a higher negative impact on poverty. Host households were impacted mostly by food prices and agricultural income, while refugees were more affected through labor market mediated effects. As expected, net-buyers are the group most affected by food value chain disruption and, along with non-agricultural households, are the ones that were most affected in terms of food security.

Keywords: COVID-19; food value chain; labor market participation; income loss. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I15 O12 Q12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 67 pages
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-dem
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