Scenarios to explore global food security up to 2050: Development process, storylines and quantification of drivers

Michiel Van Dijk (), Maryia Mandryk, Marc Gramberger, David Laborde Debucquet, Lindsay Shutes, Elke Stehfest, Hugo Valin and Katharina Zellmer

FOODSECURE Working papers from LEI Wageningen UR

Abstract: To guide policymaking, decision makers require a good understanding of the long-term drivers of food security and their interactions. Scenario analysis is widely considered as the appropriate tool to assess complex and uncertain problems, such as food security. This paper describes the development process, storylines and drivers of four new global scenarios up to the year 2050 that are specifically designed for food security modelling. To ensure the relevance, credibility and legitimacy of the scenarios a participatory process is used, involving a diverse group of stakeholders. A novel approach is introduced to quantify a selection of key drivers that directly can be used as input in global integrated assessment models to assess the impact of aid, trade, agricultural and science policies on global food and nutrition security.

JEL-codes: C53 O13 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25
Date: 2016-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
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