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Russia’s Foreign trade in 2018

Nadezhda Volovik

Published Papers from Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Abstract: In November 2018, the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) presented its updated forecasts2, according to which global economic growth would slow down from the current 3.7 percent (the OECD’s estimate as of 2018) to 3.5 percent in 2019–2020. Earlier, the OECD’s experts expected a 3.7 percent growth in global GDP in 2019. But growth in trade and investments slowed down on the back of the US protectionist policy. Growth in interest rates and appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate resulted in the capital outflow from developing countries and depreciation of their currencies. In the OECD zone, monetary stimulation measures are gradually scaled down. Trade conflicts between the US and China constitute a separate negative factor. According to the OECD’s estimate, imposition by the US of a 25 percent duty on Chinese imports and adoption by China of similar measures may cost the global economy, US economy and Chinese economy 0.5 percent of GDP, 0.8 percent of GDP and 1 percent of GDP, respectively.

Keywords: Russian economy; foreign trade; terms of trade; regional pattern (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 F13 F19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2019, Revised 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-int and nep-tra
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