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Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?

David Bloom, David Canning (), Günther Fink () and Jocelyn Finlay ()
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Günther Fink: Harvard School of Public Health
Jocelyn Finlay: Harvard School of Public Health

PGDA Working Papers from Program on the Global Demography of Aging

Abstract: High ratios of working age to dependent population can yield a increases the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 inclusion of age structure improves the model’s forecasts for the period that including age structure improves the forecast, although there instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000–2020.

Keywords: Economic Growth; demography; forecast; evaluation; error decomposition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-for and nep-mac
Date: 2006-12
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Journal Article: Does age structure forecast economic growth? (2007) Downloads
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