Shockwaves from Ukraine: Trends and Gaps in Agricultural Commodity Prices

Olga Bondarenko
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Olga Bondarenko: National Bank of Ukraine

No 04-2025, IHEID Working Papers from Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies

Abstract: I propose partial-equilibrium models that describe the dynamics of global wheat and corn markets. These models extend the classic competitive storage framework by incorporating nonstationary variables. They are calibrated using data from Ukraine and key importing and exporting countries. The models enable the endogenous estimation of price trends, based on the observed movements in the underlying variables. This framework provides insights into how involuntary reductions in Ukraine’s global market presence, triggered by Russia’s invasion, could have affected trend prices.

Keywords: commodity storage; trends, nonstationary models; numerical methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C63 Q11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2025-02-11
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp04-2025

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