Educating like China

Federica Coelli (), Difei Ouyang (), Weidi Yuan () and Yuan Zi ()
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Federica Coelli: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, CEPR, and CESifo
Difei Ouyang: University of International Business and Economics
Weidi Yuan: Nanjing University
Yuan Zi: Geneva Graduate Institute, CEPR, and CESifo, https://www.graduateinstitute.ch/international-economics-presentation

No 27-2026, IHEID Working Papers from Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies

Abstract: This paper shows that human capital accumulation can accelerate structural transformation without accelerating growth. We study China's 1999 higher education expansion, a large, rapid, and largely unanticipated increase in college graduates. We find that more exposed prefectures experienced larger increases in the skilled-labor share and shifted employment and value added from agriculture toward services. The reallocation extended to low-skilled workers. Consumer services absorbed most of the increase in employment, while producer services accounted for a disproportionate share of high-skilled employment growth. Yet more-exposed prefectures did not grow faster. A four-sector model rationalizes these patterns, showing how greater skill supply can generate broad-based servitization, but also a Baumol-type growth penalty when labor reallocates toward slower-growing sectors. Our findings highlight that the payoff to higher education depends not only on how much skill it creates, but also on whether the resulting structural transformation directs resources toward the economy's engines of productivity growth.

Keywords: Human Capital; Structural Transformation; Higher Education Expansion; Servitization; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I25 J24 L16 O11 O14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 17 pages
Date: 2026-09-18
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