Weather shocks and agricultural production: evidence on perennial and non-perennial crops in Colombia

Camilo Bohorquez-Penuela
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Camilo Bohorquez-Penuela: Banco de la República de Colombia (Central Bank of Colombia)

No 30-2026, IHEID Working Papers from Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies

Abstract: Using data from Colombia, I address the effects of extreme weather events -such as precipitation shocks- on agricultural production, for the period 2008-2019. Combining official records on precipitation from more than 2,000 weather stations in the country with municipality-level information on sown area, production, and yields for more than 200 different crops, I estimate whether episodes of excessive or lack of precipitation induce farmers to change their decisions on production in the short run. Fixed-effect estimates reveal an increase in sown area for non-perennial crops (i.e., those that need replanting after harvest) after the occurrence of episodes of excessive precipitation. On the other hand, events of lack of rainfall are related with a fall in the area devoted to those crops, favoring the increase in sown area for perennial crops, especially in greater municipalities. The estimates do not provide evidence on short-term changes on crop concentration and yields.

Keywords: Climate change; precipitation shocks; agriculture; crops; Colombia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 O54 Q10 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2026-11-03
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp30-2026

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