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The role of foreign and domestic factors in the evolution of the Brazilian EMBI spread and debt dynamics

Andrea Fracasso ()

No 22-2007, IHEID Working Papers from Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies

Abstract: This paper examines the relative importance of global and domestic factors as a source of macroeconomic fluctuations in Brazil from 1995 to 2004. US and Brazilian credit spreads are encompassed in a near-VAR model, including the main debt-related domestic variables. The US corporate bond spread is used as a measure of international risk aversion. The relative importance of global factors to the volatility of Brazilian domestic series is singled out by means of a partial identification strategy, whereby foreign variables are treated as block exogenous. The estimates reveal that foreign investors’ appetite for risk is an important determinant of the volatility of the macroeconomic Brazilian series and affects the monetary policy transmission channel, as recently suggested by Olivier Blanchard.

Keywords: External factors; Credit spreads; External debt; Fiscal dominance. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F34 F42 O23 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 62
Date: 2006-09, Revised 2007-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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