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Real Exchange Rates in the Long Run: Evidence from Historical Data

Vito Muscatelli, Franco Spinelli and Carmine Trecroci

Working Papers from Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow

Abstract: We present empirical evidence on the forces driving real exchange rates in the longrun. Using data from three industrialised countries, we find support for the hypothesis that productivity and fiscalshocks matter. There is also evidence, however, that the impact of fiscal shocks only matters in the short and medium-run. In some cases fiscal shocks cause depreciations, and this is probably explained by the monetary accomodation of fiscal shocks. The traditional Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect of productivity on real exchange rates is also found to be reversed in some cases, which demonstrates the importance of the distributive sector in driving productivity gains.

JEL-codes: C32 E44 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001-07
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gla:glaewp:2001_6

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