APPLICATION OF THE KALMAN FILTER FOR ESTIMATING CONTINUOUS TIME TERM STRUCTURE MODELS: THE CASE OF UK AND GERMANY

Somnath Chatterjee

Working Papers from Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to see how the term structure of interest rates has evolved in the sterling and euro treasury bond markets over the period 1999-2003. German bonds have been used as a proxy for euro-denominated bonds. A state-space representation for the single-factor Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985) model is employed to analyse the intertemporal dynamics of the term structure. Quasi-maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters are obtained by using the Kalman filter to calculate the likelihood function. Results of the empirical analysis show that while the unobserved instantaneous interest rate exhibits mean reverting behaviour in both the UK and Germany, the mean reversion of the interest rate process has been relatively slower in the UK. The volatility component, which shocks the process at each step in time is also higher in the UK as compared to Germany.

Date: 2005-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets, nep-fin and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gla:glaewp:2005_2

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