Escaping from hardship, searching for comfort: Climate matching in refugees’ destination choices

Diego A. Martin, Jose Ramon Morales Arilla and Alvaro Morales
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Diego A. Martin: Harvard's Growth Lab
Jose Ramon Morales Arilla: Center for International Development at Harvard University

No 237, Growth Lab Working Papers from Harvard's Growth Lab

Abstract: Do refugees settle in destinations that are ecologically similar to their origins? We assess the relevance of “climate matching” theories of migration for Venezuelan refugees in South America. Leveraging social media data, we build and validate the first local bilateral matrix of Venezuelan flows across the region. We measure bilateral ecological similarities in terms of temperature, precipitation, elevation, and distance to the coastline. Performing Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood gravity models of migration, we show that Venezuelan flows are more likely between ecologically similar areas. Model predictions explain independent measurements of Venezuelans’ settlement choices at both bilateral and destination levels.

Keywords: Refugees; Mass migration; Climate matching; Gravity migration models; Social media (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F2 O15 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env, nep-mig and nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:glh:wpfacu:237

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