A Rational Framework for the Understanding of the Arab Revolutions

Ishac Diwan
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Ishac Diwan: Center for International Development at Harvard University

No 34, Growth Lab Working Papers from Harvard's Growth Lab

Abstract: The paper argues that demise of the autocratic bargain in the Arab world, ushered by the uprisings of 2010-11, has been driven by a split in the ruling class. The bargain authoritarians struck with their societies in the recent decade is best characterized as a repressive regime that relied on a narrow elite base. The paper explores the dynamic factors that have affected this bargain over time, and in particular, the increased autonomy of the middle class, the rise of crony capitalism, the increased popularity of Political Islam among the middle class, and the "indignities" associated with unpopular foreign alliances. The recent political changes are interpreted as the moment when the middle class, traditionally allied with the autocrats, and affected by these latent pull and push factors, preferred to "tip" its support to a transition towards a democratic settlement. The 3-player model I develop is shown to explain the characteristics of the ongoing Arab Spring and of the key future challenges facing the region better than the classical autocratic bargain model.

Keywords: Arab Revolutions; Rational Framework (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-04
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:glh:wpfacu:34

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