Portugal in the Eurozone: Evolution and Expectations

Pedro Bação, Sara Cerdeira and António Portugal Duarte
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Sara Cerdeira: Statistics Portugal

No 2019-07, CeBER Working Papers from Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra

Abstract: At the time of joining the European Economic Community (precursor to the European Union) and the Eurozone, Portuguese agents were very optimistic about the level of development that the country would be able to achieve as a result of being a member of those economic areas. In this paper we describe the changes occurred in the Portuguese economy since joining the European Union and later the Eurozone. In addition, we provide estimates of the evolution of the expectations of Portuguese agents with respect to long-term real per capita GDP, based on a simple intertemporal macroeconomic model. Over the period under analysis, there was an impressive progress in standards of living. Before joining the euro, Portuguese agents were optimistic about long-term income. Expectations remained high until the onset of the debt crisis, at which time expectations collapsed. A slow recovery is visible in our estimates for the most recent years.

Keywords: Development; Euro; European Union; Macroeconomic expectations; Portugal. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E64 F43 F45 O19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2019-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-mac
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Journal Article: Portugal in the Eurozone: Evolution and Expectations (2019)
Journal Article: Portugal in the Eurozone: Evolution and Expectations (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gmf:papers:2019-07

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