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Fitting Broadband Diffusion by Cable Modem in Portugal

Rui Pascoal and Jorge Marques

No 2011-20, GEMF Working Papers from GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to described the evolution of the number of residential subscribers of broadband fixed access by cable modem, in Portugal, on the period from 2000–2009. The pattern of evolution is estimated by fitting several models to the series, namely the following: exponential, Gompertz, Logistic, Bass and Michaelis-Menten. We fit the models to the data by nonlinear least squares, except in the exponential model where the linear version is fitted by ordinary least squares, using the internet freely available program R. This comparative study is in line with many others on the diffusion of technological innovations in the telecommunications sector, where the point is finding out if there is an early or a late take-off phenomenon. The Michaelis-Menten model is introduced for the first time in this approach. It allows to predict the later evolution in the series and reveals a qualitatively different behavior.

Keywords: Broadband; Technological Innovations; Diffusion Growth Models; Nonlinear Least Squares (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C02 C53 L96 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11 pages
Date: 2011-11
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