Codebook: Crime Impacts of El Salvador’s Crackdown Policy

Miguel Ángel Santos, Adan Silverio-Murillo (), Jose Balmori-de-la-Miyar () and Abel Rodríguez ()
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Miguel Ángel Santos: School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey
Adan Silverio-Murillo: School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey
Jose Balmori-de-la-Miyar: Business School, Universidad Anahuac
Abel Rodríguez: Author-Workplace-Name: School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey

No 20, Working Paper Series of the School of Government and Public Transformation from School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey

Abstract: Objective: To examine the impact of El Salvador’s unprecedented mass incarceration policy on crime. Methods: The identification strategy of this paper exploits the launch of the incarceration policy in El Salvador, which increased the country’s prison population by 150% in just one year, propelling it to the top of global incarceration rankings. The methodology consists of fixed-effects models. Data for homicides comes from the National Civil Police, while data for other crimes comes from El Salvador’s Multipurpose Household Survey. Results: El Salvador’s unprecedented mass incarceration policy reduced homicides by 42%. Further, evidence suggests that the policy reduced street robberies by 20% and rapes by 62%, but had no measurable impact on assault, larceny, or motor vehicle theft. Conclusion: These findings contribute to the ongoing debate on the selective effectiveness of punitive criminal justice strategies. The results suggest that the observed reduction in crime following the policy is primarily driven by incapacitation rather than deterrence.

Keywords: Crime reduction; Public security policy; Policing; Mass incarceration; Homicide rates; Gang violence; Law enforcement; State capacity; El Salvador (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 H56 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2026-01
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