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Robust Determinants of CO2 Emissions

Carlos Aller (), Lorenzo Ductor () and Daryna Grechyna ()
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Carlos Aller: Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.
Lorenzo Ductor: Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.

No 20/13, ThE Papers from Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada.

Abstract: We synthesize the findings of a large number of recent papers on the determinants of CO2 emissions and identify the most robust determinants accounting for model uncertainty using two different approaches; Bayesian Model Averaging and Cluster-LASSO. Our results show that GDP per capita, the share of fossil fuels in energy consumption, urbanization, industrialization, democratization, the indirect effects of trade (networks effects) and political polarization are the robust determinants of CO2 emissions per capita. All of these determinants negatively affect the environment, with the exception of greater political polarization, which reduces the level of CO2 emissions. We also find that the determinants of CO2 emissions depend on the level of income per capita of a country. In low-income economies, foreign direct investment increases environmental degradation, while tourist arrivals have a negative impact on the environment in high-income economies.

Keywords: Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions; model uncertainty; Bayesian Model Averaging; LASSO estimator (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D14 K42 O17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2020-10-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
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